How to read
a prediction.
This is the real predictions board with invented games in it, so you can see exactly what the page looks like — including out of season, when there is nothing live to show. Every number below is made up. Nothing on this page is a real projection.
Matchup
Away team on top, home team below, with each team's record this season. The side the model favors is set in white; the other is dimmed. Kickoff and neutral-site status sit underneath.
Model line
The model's own projected margin. “Ohio State −9.5” means it expects Ohio State to win by nine and a half points. This comes from the difference between the two power ratings, plus home advantage.
Market line
The sportsbook spread for the same game, shown for comparison. A dash means no line has been posted yet — which is common early in the week.
Edge
The gap between those two numbers. A large edge means the model and the market disagree sharply about the game. It is a measure of disagreement, not a measure of confidence, and certainly not a guarantee — the market is right more often than not.
Win probability
The model's estimated chance that its projected winner actually wins outright. Click any row to open the full breakdown, including the split between the two teams and the venue.
Four invented games
Click a row to expand it, exactly as you would on the live board.
| Matchup | Model line | Market line | Edge | Win prob | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Michigan
Ohio State
|
Ohio State −9.5 | Ohio State -3.5 | 6.0 | 78.4% | |
|
Oklahoma
Texas
|
Texas −6.0 | Texas -2.0 | 4.0 | 68.2% | |
|
Alabama
Georgia
|
Georgia −3.0 | Georgia -2.5 | 0.5 | 57.9% | |
|
USC
Notre Dame
Neutral
|
Notre Dame −4.5 | — | — | 64.1% |