College football

Week 6

Projected margin and win probability for every game on the slate, set against the posted market line. Sort by edge to put the widest disagreements on top, or by kickoff to read the week in order. Ranked teams carry their number from the week 6 AP Top 25.

Matchup	Model line	Market line	Edge	Win prob
Sam Houston 1-3 Liberty 4-1 Thu, Oct 8 · 7:00 PM ET	Liberty −13.8	Liberty -13.5	0.3	87.8%
12.2% Sam Houston 87.8% Liberty Sam Houston12.2% Liberty87.8% Projected margin Liberty by 13.8 Disagreement with market 0.3 pts slight Venue Williams Stadium (VA) — Lynchburg, VA
Missouri State 1-3 Western Kentucky 1-4 Thu, Oct 8 · 7:00 PM ET	Western Kentucky −0.1	Western Kentucky -1.5	1.4	50.3%
49.7% Missouri State 50.3% Western Kentucky Missouri State49.7% Western Kentucky50.3% Projected margin Western Kentucky by 0.1 Disagreement with market 1.4 pts slight Venue Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium — Bowling Green, KY
South Alabama 3-2 Arkansas State 2-3 Thu, Oct 8 · 7:30 PM ET	Arkansas State −4.8	Arkansas State -3.0	1.8	66.6%
33.4% South Alabama 66.6% Arkansas State South Alabama33.4% Arkansas State66.6% Projected margin Arkansas State by 4.8 Disagreement with market 1.8 pts slight Venue Centennial Bank Stadium — Jonesboro, AR
South Florida 4-1 UTSA 4-1 Thu, Oct 8 · 7:30 PM ET	UTSA −0.9	UTSA -6.5	5.6	53.1%
46.9% South Florida 53.1% UTSA South Florida46.9% UTSA53.1% Projected margin UTSA by 0.9 Disagreement with market 5.6 pts strong Venue Alamodome — San Antonio, TX
Florida State 3-2 Louisville 2-3 Fri, Oct 9 · 7:00 PM ET	Louisville −2.1	Louisville -3.5	1.4	57.5%
42.5% Florida State 57.5% Louisville Florida State42.5% Louisville57.5% Projected margin Louisville by 2.1 Disagreement with market 1.4 pts slight Venue L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium — Louisville, KY
Washington State 1-4 Utah State 1-4 Fri, Oct 9 · 9:00 PM ET	Utah State −2.2	Utah State -5.5	3.3	57.8%
42.2% Washington State 57.8% Utah State Washington State42.2% Utah State57.8% Projected margin Utah State by 2.2 Disagreement with market 3.3 pts moderate Venue Maverik Stadium — Logan, UT
Wyoming 2-3 San José State 3-2 Fri, Oct 9 · 9:00 PM ET	San José State −6.6	San José State -4.5	2.1	72.1%
27.9% Wyoming 72.1% San José State Wyoming27.9% San José State72.1% Projected margin San José State by 6.6 Disagreement with market 2.1 pts slight Venue CEFCU Stadium — San Jose, CA
20 Iowa 4-1 Washington 3-2 Fri, Oct 9 · 9:00 PM ET	Iowa −5.9	Washington -3.0	8.9	69.9%
69.9% 20 Iowa 30.1% Washington Iowa69.9% Washington30.1% Projected margin Iowa by 5.9 Disagreement with market 8.9 pts strong Venue Husky Stadium — Seattle, WA
Iowa State 3-2 8 BYU 4-0 Fri, Oct 9 · 10:15 PM ET	BYU −10.0	BYU -10.5	0.5	80.8%
19.2% Iowa State 80.8% 8 BYU Iowa State19.2% BYU80.8% Projected margin BYU by 10.0 Disagreement with market 0.5 pts slight Venue LaVell Edwards Stadium — Provo, UT
Arizona 4-1 West Virginia 3-2 Sat, Oct 10 · 12:00 PM ET	Arizona −6.5	Arizona −3.0	3.5	71.6%
71.6% Arizona 28.4% West Virginia Arizona71.6% West Virginia28.4% Projected margin Arizona by 6.5 Disagreement with market 3.5 pts moderate Venue Milan Puskar Stadium — Morgantown, WV
North Carolina 2-2 25 Pittsburgh 5-0 Sat, Oct 10 · 12:00 PM ET	Pittsburgh −14.6	Pittsburgh -3.5	11.1	89.0%
11.0% North Carolina 89.0% 25 Pittsburgh North Carolina11.0% Pittsburgh89.0% Projected margin Pittsburgh by 14.6 Disagreement with market 11.1 pts strong Venue Acrisure Stadium — Pittsburgh, PA
Wake Forest 4-1 NC State 3-2 Sat, Oct 10 · 12:00 PM ET	Wake Forest −0.6	Wake Forest −3.5	2.9	52.0%
52.0% Wake Forest 48.0% NC State Wake Forest52.0% NC State48.0% Projected margin Wake Forest by 0.6 Disagreement with market 2.9 pts slight Venue Carter-Finley Stadium — Raleigh, NC
Tulane 2-2 Army 2-2 Sat, Oct 10 · 12:00 PM ET	Army −8.9	Army -3.0	5.9	78.2%
21.8% Tulane 78.2% Army Tulane21.8% Army78.2% Projected margin Army by 8.9 Disagreement with market 5.9 pts strong Venue Michie Stadium — West Point, NY
Sacramento State 1-4 Bowling Green 1-4 Sat, Oct 10 · 12:00 PM ET	Bowling Green −5.6	Bowling Green -7.5	1.9	68.9%
31.1% Sacramento State 68.9% Bowling Green Sacramento State31.1% Bowling Green68.9% Projected margin Bowling Green by 5.6 Disagreement with market 1.9 pts slight Venue Doyt L. Perry Stadium — Bowling Green, OH
Texas A&M 3-2 14 Missouri 4-1 Sat, Oct 10 · 12:00 PM ET	Missouri −2.4	Missouri -3.5	1.1	58.5%
41.5% Texas A&M 58.5% 14 Missouri Texas A&M41.5% Missouri58.5% Projected margin Missouri by 2.4 Disagreement with market 1.1 pts slight Venue Memorial Stadium — Columbia, MO
7 Indiana 5-0 Nebraska 5-0 Sat, Oct 10 · 12:00 PM ET	Indiana −8.6	Indiana −7.5	1.1	77.4%
77.4% 7 Indiana 22.6% Nebraska Indiana77.4% Nebraska22.6% Projected margin Indiana by 8.6 Disagreement with market 1.1 pts slight Venue Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE) — Lincoln, NE
UCF 3-2 18 Oklahoma State 3-1 Sat, Oct 10 · 12:00 PM ET	UCF −1.2	Oklahoma State -10.5	11.7	54.1%
54.1% UCF 45.9% 18 Oklahoma State UCF54.1% Oklahoma State45.9% Projected margin UCF by 1.2 Disagreement with market 11.7 pts strong Venue Boone Pickens Stadium — Stillwater, OK
Ball State 1-4 Northwestern 3-1 Sat, Oct 10 · 12:30 PM ET	Northwestern −40.5	Northwestern -37.5	3.0	99.7%
0.3% Ball State 99.7% Northwestern Ball State0.3% Northwestern99.7% Projected margin Northwestern by 40.5 Disagreement with market 3.0 pts moderate Venue Ryan Field — Evanston, IL
South Carolina 2-3 16 Florida 4-1 Sat, Oct 10 · 12:45 PM ET	Florida −11.4	Florida -11.5	0.2	83.5%
16.5% South Carolina 83.5% 16 Florida South Carolina16.5% Florida83.5% Projected margin Florida by 11.4 Disagreement with market 0.2 pts slight Venue Ben Hill Griffin Stadium — Gainesville, FL
Old Dominion 1-4 App State 3-1 Sat, Oct 10 · 1:00 PM ET	App State −7.2	App State -9.5	2.3	73.8%
26.2% Old Dominion 73.8% App State Old Dominion26.2% App State73.8% Projected margin App State by 7.2 Disagreement with market 2.3 pts slight Venue Kidd Brewer Stadium — Boone, NC
Miami (OH) 2-3 Massachusetts 4-1 Sat, Oct 10 · 2:00 PM ET	Miami (OH) −3.0	Miami (OH) −2.5	0.5	60.6%
60.6% Miami (OH) 39.4% Massachusetts Miami (OH)60.6% Massachusetts39.4% Projected margin Miami (OH) by 3.0 Disagreement with market 0.5 pts slight Venue Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium — Hadley, MA
Illinois 2-3 Michigan State 2-3 Sat, Oct 10 · 3:30 PM ET	Illinois −1.3	Illinois −2.5	1.2	54.5%
54.5% Illinois 45.5% Michigan State Illinois54.5% Michigan State45.5% Projected margin Illinois by 1.3 Disagreement with market 1.2 pts slight Venue Spartan Stadium — East Lansing, MI
Stanford 2-3 3 Notre Dame 5-0 Sat, Oct 10 · 3:30 PM ET	Notre Dame −43.7	Notre Dame -38.5	5.2	99.8%
0.2% Stanford 99.8% 3 Notre Dame Stanford0.2% Notre Dame99.8% Projected margin Notre Dame by 43.7 Disagreement with market 5.2 pts strong Venue Notre Dame Stadium — Notre Dame, IN
Charlotte 0-5 North Texas 3-2 Sat, Oct 10 · 3:30 PM ET	North Texas −35.3	North Texas -28.5	6.8	99.4%
0.6% Charlotte 99.4% North Texas Charlotte0.6% North Texas99.4% Projected margin North Texas by 35.3 Disagreement with market 6.8 pts strong Venue DATCU Stadium — Denton, TX
1 Texas 4-0 Oklahoma 2-2 Sat, Oct 10 · 3:30 PM ET · Neutral	Texas −12.0	Texas −7.5	4.5	84.7%
84.7% 1 Texas 15.3% Oklahoma Texas84.7% Oklahoma15.3% Projected margin Texas by 12.0 Disagreement with market 4.5 pts moderate Venue Cotton Bowl — Dallas, TX · neutral
9 Ole Miss 3-1 Vanderbilt 3-2 Sat, Oct 10 · 3:30 PM ET	Ole Miss −2.1	Ole Miss −9.5	7.4	57.6%
57.6% 9 Ole Miss 42.4% Vanderbilt Ole Miss57.6% Vanderbilt42.4% Projected margin Ole Miss by 2.1 Disagreement with market 7.4 pts strong Venue FirstBank Stadium — Nashville, TN
22 Houston 4-1 Kansas State 3-1 Sat, Oct 10 · 3:30 PM ET	Kansas State −1.2	Kansas State -2.5	1.3	54.2%
45.8% 22 Houston 54.2% Kansas State Houston45.8% Kansas State54.2% Projected margin Kansas State by 1.2 Disagreement with market 1.3 pts slight Venue Bill Snyder Family Stadium — Manhattan, KS
Tulsa 3-2 Navy 1-3 Sat, Oct 10 · 3:30 PM ET	Tulsa −0.8	Navy -2.5	3.3	52.8%
52.8% Tulsa 47.2% Navy Tulsa52.8% Navy47.2% Projected margin Tulsa by 0.8 Disagreement with market 3.3 pts moderate Venue Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium — Annapolis, MD
Duke 4-0 Georgia Tech 1-3 Sat, Oct 10 · 3:30 PM ET	Duke −8.6	Duke −6.5	2.0	77.2%
77.2% Duke 22.8% Georgia Tech Duke77.2% Georgia Tech22.8% Projected margin Duke by 8.6 Disagreement with market 2.0 pts slight Venue Bobby Dodd Stadium — Atlanta, GA
Virginia Tech 4-1 California 2-3 Sat, Oct 10 · 3:30 PM ET	Virginia Tech −10.9	Virginia Tech −10.0	0.9	82.5%
82.5% Virginia Tech 17.5% California Virginia Tech82.5% California17.5% Projected margin Virginia Tech by 10.9 Disagreement with market 0.9 pts slight Venue California Memorial Stadium — Berkeley, CA
Kent State 2-3 Western Michigan 3-2 Sat, Oct 10 · 3:30 PM ET	Western Michigan −19.9	Western Michigan -13.5	6.4	94.5%
5.5% Kent State 94.5% Western Michigan Kent State5.5% Western Michigan94.5% Projected margin Western Michigan by 19.9 Disagreement with market 6.4 pts strong Venue Waldo Stadium — Kalamazoo, MI
Eastern Michigan 3-3 Akron 1-4 Sat, Oct 10 · 3:30 PM ET	Eastern Michigan −3.3	Eastern Michigan −6.5	3.2	61.6%
61.6% Eastern Michigan 38.4% Akron Eastern Michigan61.6% Akron38.4% Projected margin Eastern Michigan by 3.3 Disagreement with market 3.2 pts moderate Venue InfoCision Stadium — Akron, OH
21 UCLA 4-0 13 Oregon 3-1 Sat, Oct 10 · 3:30 PM ET	Oregon −11.0	Oregon -11.5	0.6	82.7%
17.3% 21 UCLA 82.7% 13 Oregon UCLA17.3% Oregon82.7% Projected margin Oregon by 11.0 Disagreement with market 0.6 pts slight Venue Autzen Stadium — Eugene, OR
Buffalo 2-3 Toledo 4-1 Sat, Oct 10 · 3:30 PM ET	Toledo −27.8	Toledo -21.0	6.8	98.1%
1.9% Buffalo 98.1% Toledo Buffalo1.9% Toledo98.1% Projected margin Toledo by 27.8 Disagreement with market 6.8 pts strong Venue Glass Bowl — Toledo, OH
Central Michigan 3-2 Ohio 3-2 Sat, Oct 10 · 3:30 PM ET	Ohio −6.0	Ohio -3.0	3.0	70.3%
29.7% Central Michigan 70.3% Ohio Central Michigan29.7% Ohio70.3% Projected margin Ohio by 6.0 Disagreement with market 3.0 pts moderate Venue Peden Stadium — Athens, OH
UConn 2-3 Temple 2-3 Sat, Oct 10 · 3:45 PM ET	Temple −3.4	Temple -3.5	0.1	62.0%
38.0% UConn 62.0% Temple UConn38.0% Temple62.0% Projected margin Temple by 3.4 Disagreement with market 0.1 pts slight Venue Lincoln Financial Field — Philadelphia, PA
Rice 1-4 East Carolina 2-2 Sat, Oct 10 · 4:00 PM ET	East Carolina −12.9	East Carolina -10.0	2.9	86.3%
13.7% Rice 86.3% East Carolina Rice13.7% East Carolina86.3% Projected margin East Carolina by 12.9 Disagreement with market 2.9 pts slight Venue Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium — Greenville, NC
Maryland 2-3 5 Ohio State 4-1 Sat, Oct 10 · 4:15 PM ET	Ohio State −33.7	Ohio State -34.5	0.8	99.2%
0.8% Maryland 99.2% 5 Ohio State Maryland0.8% Ohio State99.2% Projected margin Ohio State by 33.7 Disagreement with market 0.8 pts slight Venue Ohio Stadium — Columbus, OH
15 Tennessee 4-1 Arkansas 2-3 Sat, Oct 10 · 4:15 PM ET	Tennessee −15.9	Tennessee −13.5	2.4	90.7%
90.7% 15 Tennessee 9.3% Arkansas Tennessee90.7% Arkansas9.3% Projected margin Tennessee by 15.9 Disagreement with market 2.4 pts slight Venue Razorback Stadium — Fayetteville, AR
San Diego State 2-3 Oregon State 3-2 Sat, Oct 10 · 6:00 PM ET	Oregon State −11.3	Oregon State -15.5	4.2	83.4%
16.6% San Diego State 83.4% Oregon State San Diego State16.6% Oregon State83.4% Projected margin Oregon State by 11.3 Disagreement with market 4.2 pts moderate Venue Reser Stadium — Corvallis, OR
North Dakota State 5-0 UNLV 3-2 Sat, Oct 10 · 7:00 PM ET	North Dakota State −7.2	North Dakota State −3.0	4.2	73.6%
73.6% North Dakota State 26.4% UNLV North Dakota State73.6% UNLV26.4% Projected margin North Dakota State by 7.2 Disagreement with market 4.2 pts moderate Venue Allegiant Stadium — Las Vegas, NV
Coastal Carolina 1-4 Marshall 3-2 Sat, Oct 10 · 7:00 PM ET	Marshall −0.1	Marshall -4.0	3.9	50.3%
49.7% Coastal Carolina 50.3% Marshall Coastal Carolina49.7% Marshall50.3% Projected margin Marshall by 0.1 Disagreement with market 3.9 pts moderate Venue Joan C. Edwards Stadium — Huntington, WV
10 LSU 4-1 Kentucky 4-1 Sat, Oct 10 · 7:00 PM ET	LSU −9.1	LSU −8.5	0.6	78.6%
78.6% 10 LSU 21.4% Kentucky LSU78.6% Kentucky21.4% Projected margin LSU by 9.1 Disagreement with market 0.6 pts slight Venue Kroger Field — Lexington, KY
UAB 3-2 Memphis 4-1 Sat, Oct 10 · 7:00 PM ET	Memphis −20.5	Memphis -14.0	6.5	94.9%
5.1% UAB 94.9% Memphis UAB5.1% Memphis94.9% Projected margin Memphis by 20.5 Disagreement with market 6.5 pts strong Venue Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium — Memphis, TN
Nevada 1-3 UTEP 1-4 Sat, Oct 10 · 7:00 PM ET	Nevada −10.7	Nevada −10.0	0.7	82.2%
82.2% Nevada 17.8% UTEP Nevada82.2% UTEP17.8% Projected margin Nevada by 10.7 Disagreement with market 0.7 pts slight Venue Sun Bowl — El Paso, TX
James Madison 5-0 Georgia Southern 2-3 Sat, Oct 10 · 7:30 PM ET	James Madison −18.6	James Madison −7.5	11.1	93.4%
93.4% James Madison 6.6% Georgia Southern James Madison93.4% Georgia Southern6.6% Projected margin James Madison by 18.6 Disagreement with market 11.1 pts strong Venue Allen E. Paulson Stadium — Statesboro, GA
Air Force 3-1 Northern Illinois 0-4 Sat, Oct 10 · 7:30 PM ET	Air Force −12.0	Air Force −7.5	4.5	84.7%
84.7% Air Force 15.3% Northern Illinois Air Force84.7% Northern Illinois15.3% Projected margin Air Force by 12.0 Disagreement with market 4.5 pts moderate Venue Huskie Stadium — DeKalb, IL
19 USC 5-1 Penn State 3-2 Sat, Oct 10 · 7:30 PM ET	Penn State −2.7	Penn State -1.5	1.2	59.7%
40.3% 19 USC 59.7% Penn State USC40.3% Penn State59.7% Projected margin Penn State by 2.7 Disagreement with market 1.2 pts slight Venue Beaver Stadium — University Park, PA
Louisiana 4-1 Louisiana Tech 2-2 Sat, Oct 10 · 7:30 PM ET	Louisiana Tech −5.8	Louisiana Tech -3.0	2.8	69.5%
30.5% Louisiana 69.5% Louisiana Tech Louisiana30.5% Louisiana Tech69.5% Projected margin Louisiana Tech by 5.8 Disagreement with market 2.8 pts slight Venue Joe Aillet Stadium — Ruston, LA
2 Georgia 5-0 6 Alabama 5-0 Sat, Oct 10 · 7:30 PM ET	Alabama −5.4	Alabama -1.5	3.9	68.3%
31.7% 2 Georgia 68.3% 6 Alabama Georgia31.7% Alabama68.3% Projected margin Alabama by 5.4 Disagreement with market 3.9 pts moderate Venue Bryant-Denny Stadium — Tuscaloosa, AL
Syracuse 2-2 Virginia 3-2 Sat, Oct 10 · 7:30 PM ET	Virginia −12.9	Virginia -9.5	3.4	86.4%
13.6% Syracuse 86.4% Virginia Syracuse13.6% Virginia86.4% Projected margin Virginia by 12.9 Disagreement with market 3.4 pts moderate Venue Scott Stadium — Charlottesville, VA
Minnesota 4-1 Purdue 2-3 Sat, Oct 10 · 8:00 PM ET	Minnesota −3.8	Minnesota −2.5	1.3	63.3%
63.3% Minnesota 36.7% Purdue Minnesota63.3% Purdue36.7% Projected margin Minnesota by 3.8 Disagreement with market 1.3 pts slight Venue Ross-Ade Stadium — West Lafayette, IN
Hawai'i 1-4 Arizona State 2-2 Sat, Oct 10 · 9:30 PM ET	Arizona State −20.0	Arizona State -20.5	0.5	94.6%
5.4% Hawai'i 94.6% Arizona State Hawai'i5.4% Arizona State94.6% Projected margin Arizona State by 20.0 Disagreement with market 0.5 pts slight Venue Mountain America Stadium — Tempe, AZ
Kansas 2-2 12 Utah 4-0 Sat, Oct 10 · 10:15 PM ET	Utah −22.0	Utah -15.5	6.5	95.9%
4.1% Kansas 95.9% 12 Utah Kansas4.1% Utah95.9% Projected margin Utah by 22.0 Disagreement with market 6.5 pts strong Venue Rice-Eccles Stadium — Salt Lake City, UT
23 Boise State 4-1 Fresno State 4-1 Sat, Oct 10 · 10:30 PM ET	Boise State −7.1	Boise State −6.5	0.6	73.5%
73.5% 23 Boise State 26.5% Fresno State Boise State73.5% Fresno State26.5% Projected margin Boise State by 7.1 Disagreement with market 0.6 pts slight Venue Valley Children's Stadium — Fresno, CA

5+Model and market are far apart

3–5Moderate disagreement

<3Broadly in line with the market